Tariffs Will Keep US Imports Elevated into Spring, NRF Says

The recent implementation of tariffs by the Trump administration hasn’t slowed down imports into the U.S. As uncertainty remains in the short term, inbound cargo volume into the country is expected to remain elevated into the spring, according to America’s largest retail trade association.

According to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and trade consulting firm Hackett Associates, major U.S. container ports handled 2.22 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in January.

That total is up 13.4 percent year over year, and 4.4 percent above December import totals.

“Retailers are continuing to bring as much merchandise into the country ahead of rising tariffs as possible,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at NRF, in a statement.

Ports have not yet reported February’s numbers, but the Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.07 million TEUs, up 6.1 percent year over year. That would be the busiest February—traditionally the slowest month of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China—since 2022.

This month inbound cargo volume is forecast to bump back up to double-digit increases, with March expected to reel in 2.14 million containers, up 10.8 percent year over year.

President Donald Trump announced a 10 percent tariff on goods from China in February, before increasing that amount again to 20 percent last week. In kind, China hit back with retaliatory duties of its own.

A 25 percent tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico first announced in February was delayed until March 4, before being put on hold for a month for goods compliant with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement trade pact signed during Trump’s first administration.

 “The on-again, off-again tariffs against Canada and Mexico won’t have a direct impact on port volumes because most of those goods move by truck or rail. But new tariffs on goods from China that have already doubled from 10 percent to 20 percent are a concern, as well as uncertainty over ‘reciprocal’ tariffs that could start in April,” Gold noted.

While some NRF member retailers have been working on diversifying their supply chain across other countries, Gold said “that doesn’t happen overnight.”

“In the meantime, tariffs are taxes on imports ultimately paid by consumers, not foreign countries, and American families will pay more as long as they are in place,” he said.

As clarity begins to settle around the tariffs and the opportunity to front-load goods into the U.S. fades, the growth in inbound cargo volume will start to subside.

While the Global Port Tracker projects imports in April to increase at a 5.7 percent pace to 2.13 million TEUs, the tides will begin to shift as the summer starts to kick in.

In May, cargo brought into major U.S. ports will reach 2.14 million TEUs, up just 2.8 percent from the same period in 2024.

By June, the Global Port Tracker expects its first downturn of the year, with volume decreasing 3.2 percent to 2.07 million TEUs. July is anticipated to see the largest drop in 2025, with TEUs down 13.9 percent to 1.99 million.

June and July’s year-over-year declines would be the first since September 2023, and July’s volume would be lowest since the 1.93 million containers entering American ports in March 2024.

While tariffs could be a factor in the year-over-year decline, imports were also elevated last summer as retailers pulled forward the typical peak season. At the time, import totals got an earlier bump due to worries about peaking freight rates spurred on by the Red Sea diversions, as well concerns of a strike at East and Gulf Coast ports on Oct. 1. That strike lasted three days.

Imports from all trading partners may be affected by the various port fees being considered by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, noted Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett.

These fees could range between $1 million and $1.5 million for each time a Chinese-operated or Chinese-built ship docks at a U.S. port.

“Given that a significant portion of the global container fleet has been built in China, this means that there will be further costs that will be passed on to cargo owners and ultimately the consumer,” Hackett said in a statement. “Ports accommodated the surge in import volume in the final quarter of 2024 without major issues, but this will place additional pressure on the supply chain while also harming the nation’s smaller ports.”

Echoing comments from Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) CEO Soren Toft at the TPM25 trade and logistics conference last week, Hackett said carriers will likely make more use of larger vessels and consolidate calls at major ports rather than making multiple stops at smaller ports.