Panama Canal Data Shows No Evidence of Preferential Vessel Treatment

President Donald Trump’s concerns about Chinese influence on the Panama Canal have put the 51-mile trade artery under the spotlight in recent months. Amid Washington’s fears that any potential foreign influence could result in the canal’s operators favoriting one country over another, particularly in the event of a military conflict, nothing has suggested thus far that any country’s ships would get preferential treatment.

While ocean carriers based out of China and Hong Kong have had faster transit times than many of their counterparts traversing the canal, an analysis from supply chain visibility platform Project44 indicates that there has been no clear evidence of preferential treatment for any vessels or any specific country.

Upon analyzing “hundreds of thousands” of shipments moving through the canal over the past 13 months, Project44 concluded that transit times across various routes appear to reflect the operational efficiency of individual carriers rather than any form of favoritism.

China-owned carriers like Cosco Shipping have the lowest overall transit time from Yantian to New York over a 36-day average, compared to the overall average of 48 days. However, that trend isn’t consistent every month.

Vessels owned by carriers from Singapore (ONE), Germany (Hapag-Lloyd), South Korea (HMM), and Hong Kong (OOCL) all outperformed the Chinese vessels in certain months over the past year.

On the Shanghai-to-New York trade lane, French ocean carrier CMA CGM had the lowest average transit time of 30 days, a full week faster than the overall lane average of 37 days.

As of Jan. 1, the CMA CGM average was 33 days, just ahead of both Cosco and OOCL, which had averages of roughly 34 days. Those three have largely been the most efficient carriers since the start of 2024, with Israel’s ZIM taking the top spot throughout April and the first two weeks of May.

Three major factors contribute to performance of each individual carrier, Project44 said: fleet and operational efficiency; vessel and route selection; and investments in technology for route optimization and data-driven scheduling.

“Carriers prioritize different vessels and shipping routes, which can impact how quickly shipments are processed,” the analysis said. “Carriers with faster vessels or those taking more direct routes tend to outperform others, regardless of the carrier’s country of origin. This diversity of carriers means that no single nation dominates the Panama Canal’s operations.”

Current shifts within the major carriers’ vessel-sharing agreements could potentially slow down some of the transit times in the near term as each alliance phases in their network. Currently, container ships represent roughly 24.2 percent of total vessels that traversed the canal in January, according to the Panama Canal Authority (ACP).

The Panama Canal hosts an estimated 5 percent, the ACP says, with more than 76 percent of the cargo traveling the waterway originating in or destined for the U.S.

Project44’s data likely isn’t going to sway any sentiment in D.C., even with all the factors that go into transit times.

Tensions between the U.S. and Panama first escalated ahead of and during President Trump’s inauguration. In December, Trump said he wanted to “take back” control of the trade artery, while also making baseless claims that China operated the canal and that the country’s military was stationed there. During his inaugural address, he again made those claims, saying “the spirit of our treaty has been totally violated.”

Under the Panama Canal Treaty and Neutrality Treaty first signed in September 1977 during the Carter administration, the waterway would operate as a neutral passage for ships from every country to pass through.

ACP administrator Ricaurte Vásquez Morales told the Associated Press that requests for exceptions are routinely rejected, because the process is clear and the canal operator doesn’t want to resort to arbitrary decisions.

In a likely attempt to calm down the alarm bells going off in the U.S., the canal has audited the Hong Kong-based operator of the Balboa and Cristobal ports, which are stationed adjacent to the northern and southern entrances to the waterway. Panama also reportedly is rethinking its relationship with the port operator, CK Hutchison.

Panama President José Raúl Mulino met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on his first foreign trip as the chief U.S. diplomat, with the meeting concluding with the ACP revealing that it will “optimize transit priority” of American military ships. However, the authority has stopped short of providing the free canal passage the current administration is seeking.