Overhaul Projects 22% Increase in Cargo Theft Volumes in 2025

Cargo theft rates continue to climb in the United States, according to Overhaul, which uses technology to assess risk in supply chains. 

The company’s annual report on cargo theft notes that, while it can report more than 2,200 instances of cargo theft with certainty, it can “confidently assert that the actual number of major theft incidents exceeds 13,500 for the year 2024.”

Last year’s confirmed figure of 2,217 thefts represents a 49 percent increase in cargo theft volume, and a 17 percent increase in average value when stacked up against 2023’s data. Overhaul believes the problem will only continue to grow; in the report, it projects that, in 2025, cargo theft volumes will again see an uptick, though at a slower rate—this time, 22 percent. 

Danny Ramon, director of intelligence and LE Connect for Overhaul, said the continued increase in cargo theft volume indicates that crimesters only continue to hone their craft—and that an increased number of thieves have entered the arena in recent years.

“These folks are getting better at what they do. Folks in white collar and blue collar America are not the only ones who re-careered during the pandemic; criminals did it, too. A lot of them found cargo theft as their new ‘career,’ and they’ve been focusing their efforts and getting better,” he said. 

Fashion and apparel’s cargo isn’t as heavily impacted by at-large cargo theft as its counterparts are. While clothing and shoes accounted for 9 percent of total items grabbed by cargo thieves, nearly one-quarter of all thefts targeted electronics. 

In the U.S., some states experience higher rates of theft than others; in 2024, California brought home the title for No.1 state for cargo theft, with incidents there accounting for 32 percent of all cargo theft in the country. And though the proportion of cargo theft the state was responsible for declined by nine percentage points as compared with 2023, cargo theft still grew by 15 percent, which highlights the climb in overall incidence rate nationally. 

“This indicates that, unlike in previous years, cargo theft is spreading to other states but remains a latent risk for logistics activities in metropolitan areas that are commonly affected by these thefts,” Overhaul wrote in the report. 

Texas, which had the second-highest volume of cargo thefts, accounted for 19 percent of national activity in 2024, up seven percentage points from 2023. Tennessee and Pennsylvania, the third and fourth-place states, respectively, also saw an increase in the proportion of national cargo theft they account for. Tennessee saw its proportion grow to 14 percent from 11 percent in 2023, while Pennsylvania saw a higher increase, growing from 1 percent to 8 percent. 

Ramon posits that some of the reason behind certain geographies seeing an uptick in theft rates comes from at-large supply chain issues. Potential port strikes and disruptions can encourage crimesters to strike harder when business is not as usual. 

“We saw a lot of port volatility in 2024. I think a lot of folks have diversified their supply chain and where things are coming in, in order to make sure that they don’t have all their eggs in one basket,” he said. 

Despite their changing antics, crimesters still seem to have a preference for pilferage, or, as Ramon defines it, “taking things out of the trailer or container, versus taking the trailer or container itself.” Nearly half of all recorded cargo thefts in 2024 were instances of pilfering. Ramon said that typically happens in two ways. 

“There’s the organized folks who are going to travel, and they’re by and large going to practice these…pilferages in rural areas, where they’re far away from witnesses, far away from response time,” he said. “And then there’s the folks who are going to practice this in metro areas…These people typically do not travel very far.” 

Ramon said, as time goes on, criminals only become more savvy—both in their methods and in their observance of patterns, which has caused some changes to when many crimes take place. 

Thieves and crime rings looking to capitalize off cargo theft struck most during weekdays, but particularly on Mondays and Fridays—more than one-third of verified cargo thefts took place on those days last year. And it just may be that crimesters took the “early bird gets the worm” mentality to heart in 2024; nearly 30 percent of all verified cargo theft occurred between 12 a.m. and 6 a.m., up seven percentage points from 2023. The afternoon shift saw a little less love, with one-quarter of thefts occurring between 12 p.m. and 6 p.m., down three percentage points from 2023. 

And while day of the week and time of day may give some insight into how crimesters work, what may prove more valuable is an understanding of the times of year these thieves remain most active. According to Overhaul, about 60 percent of the year’s theft events took place in the latter half of the year. But Ramon said the difference between quarters used to be more severe. 

“We [previously] had that huge spike in Q4, and a huge drop off in Q1, when they’d take their vacation and spend all their money, and then it would slowly start to tick back up throughout the year, before we saw that big Q4 spike again,” he said. “Now…we’re seeing a lot of those large-scale pilferage folks and strategic theft guys coming to fill that gap, because seasonality does not matter to them.”

Ramon said, as he looks ahead to the rest of 2025, rail theft is a burgeoning concern the industry needs to keep an eye on. While Overhaul’s report shows that just less than 10 percent of thefts took place on railroads or in train yards, Ramon said those types of instances are  underreported and often privately handled. 

Regardless of the type of theft, though, Ramon said companies shipping cargo around the country should have their guards up—and build a network full of professionals who can guide them through any cargo theft-related snafus. 

“Having the proper contacts and networks of cargo theft-specific law enforcement contacts is probably the number one thing behind getting plugged in and knowing what the supply chain security landscape is in your supply chain,” he said.