Albanese faces headwinds ahead of May vote

When Cyclone Alfred barrelled over Australia’s east coast earlier this month, it also blew the government’s election plans off course.

Hoping to capitalise on some rare good news on interest rates, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was on the cusp of announcing an April polling date. Instead he had to pivot and focus on responding to the natural disaster. It was, one Labor Minister told me, a decision taken from him by “an act of God”.

You might say that’s been a theme of his government: big plans often derailed by unpleasant surprises – trying global economic conditions and a cost-of-living crisis which is battering many countries, foreign wars and tricky geopolitics, post-pandemic fallout and rising national divisions, and now giant storms.

“Global conditions are real,” Albanese, who leads the Labor Party, said as he officially announced a 3 May election.

Though, despite those challenges, he says his party has delivered. “Landing where we have is like landing a 747 [jet] on a helicopter pad,” he said, pointing to a recent increase in wage growth and falling inflation.

But he wants a second term to reset.

Standing in his way is Peter Dutton – a conservative who leads the Liberal Party, the dominant member of the so-called Coalition with the National Party of Australia – who just two years ago polling indicated was deeply unpopular.

But the race between them is now so tight and the rise of independents or minor parties such that many are expecting a hung parliament.

So how has it unravelled for Prime Minister Albanese?

His victory in May 2022 was seen as a fresh start after nine years of conservative rule.

Climate action was big on the agenda, as was addressing the cost-of-living and restoring stability to the country’s leadership.

But the legacy he eyed for his government was on Indigenous affairs. He opened his victory speech reiterating a pledge to hold a historic referendum on an Indigenous Voice to Parliament, an advisory body that would inform the government on issues that affect First Nations people.

Albanese spent most of 2023 campaigning for a “Yes” vote. This was the moment, he hoped, that First Nations people would get constitutional recognition – finally catching up with other former British colonies – and that Australia would begin mending what many see as a very broken relationship with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

But the proposal was decisively rejected, leaving many Indigenous people feeling disappointed and betrayed. Albanese was also left licking his wounds after a damaging campaign.

Some critics blamed confusion and misinformation for why about 60% of Australians voted “No”. But while Albanese was campaigning for the “Yes” vote, opposition leader Peter Dutton campaigned for “No”, attacking Albanese for spending money on the referendum while a cost-of-living crisis intensified.

“[Dutton] not only won on the referendum, but also he won on positioning Labor as the government that’s not completely focused on the issues that matter to Australia,” says Kos Samaras, political consultant and a former Labor strategist.

During Albanese’s tenure, interest rates have been put up 12 times (and cut once, in February), inflation soared post-pandemic, the country’s housing crisis deepened, and Australians increasingly felt stretched.

Though the prime minister would lay the blame for many of those issues at the previous coalition government’s feet, voters want to know who is best placed to deal with all of them now.

In Anthony Albanese’s victory speech in 2022, he said Australia was “the greatest country on earth”. Australian voters though are increasingly questioning whether that’s still true – and perhaps more importantly, whether politicians from traditional parties are the ones able to fix it.

So though many are disillusioned with Labor, this won’t necessarily translate as a vote for Dutton’s Coalition at the ballot box.

Support for minor parties and independents reached record levels at the previous election, and similar is expected this time around. If neither party reaches the magic number of 76 seats in the House of Representatives, which poll after poll paints as unlikely, independent candidates could be the kingmakers of any future government.

If that happens, Australia would be another page in a story unfolding all over the world – disenfranchised voters seeking more radical solutions and voting for change. In many places this is a real threat to democracy as people stop trusting the system.

But while Australia faces the same challenges as other parts of the world, a few quirks in its electoral system have thus far guarded against more radical swings that we’ve seen in other countries, like the US, France and Germany.

Experts all agree that mandatory voting is a key factor in Australia’s political stability. In the 2022 elections, just under 90% of the population voted – much, much higher than the average OECD turnout of 69%. The fine for not voting in a federal election is a mere A$20 but there’s a sense of duty here to go out and vote.

What that means is politicians don’t have to mobilise their bases – turnout is a given, it’s just about pushing your narrative. Where voting is optional, there’s a tendency for special interest groups to become overly influential as those who are less engaged decide not to cast a ballot. Plus, if everyone, no matter their politics, education or their wealth, goes to vote, it tends to pull the result towards a more representative centre.

“[Australia’s] elections are decided in the middle,” says the country’s chief election analyst Antony Green. “That means getting your message through those people who aren’t paying much attention.”

The other big stabiliser for Australia, say experts, is preferential voting – where voters effectively number their candidates in order of who they want to win. It’s why in recent years the Greens have emerged on the left and One Nation on the right but still, Labor and the Coalition dominate. Experts say preferential voting tempers the effects of polarisation and forces the two major parties to appeal to people who aren’t necessarily voting for them first in order to receive their next preferences, which also helps moderate policy.

While the campaign will focus on problems close to home, the candidates would be foolish to ignore the global political headwinds.

During last year’s presidential election, few analysts I spoke to seemed to think a Trump White House would massively impact Australia, this comparatively small and distant democracy.

But five months feels like a lifetime in today’s politics. Not a day goes by without Donald Trump making the headlines and Australians are tuning in to watch.

With Trump’s obvious disregard for longstanding alliances as well as constant talk of tariffs and trade wars, all this plays a part in Australians’ fears about their place in the world – and importantly, the future of what is arguably its most important diplomatic and military relationship.

Peter Dutton argues he’d be much better than Albanese at dealing with Trump. But there are doubts that anyone really knows how to handle this new administration – politicians of all stripes around the globe are feeling their way with how best to manage their relationship with the US.

With Albanese firing the starting gun today, Australians have just over a month of intense campaigning to help them determine who they want to lead them through the next three years.

While Labor’s handling of the ex-cyclone Alfred has improved its chances – the Prime Minister’s approval ratings have risen to their highest level in 18 months – polling in recent months has pointed towards a Dutton administration.

It’s still incredibly close, and the Albanese government faces the unenviable prospect of being the first which fails to win a second term since 1931.